On Public Policy: Four Wheel Drive Should Be Mandated

We’ve seen it happen. Any amount of accumulating snow or ice moves into a city like New York or Boston or Toronto or Chicago by way of a storm and the traffic grinds to a halt. That traffic is made worse by two-wheel drive cars that can neither easily nor safely go up or down hills, make turns or stop, when compared to four wheel drive vehicles. Yet these locales are yet to mandate that all cars sold must be four or all wheel drive. And none of these places require you to get winter tires during winter.  I believe they should.

It would be a smart policy decision for provinces and states where cold weather is inevitable to prevent people from purchasing anything other than a four-wheel drive car. For commercial vehicles, say, those driving a taxi or a car for a ride sharing service, it would be mandatory requirements before issuing commercial permits. Like seatbelts, this kind of law is in the public interest. The same rationale for requiring seatbelts in cars and requiring they be worn can be applied to mandated that all new car sales are four wheel drive. After all, seatbelts are in the best interest of the wearer, yet the government has to enforce the rule. As a society we have proven we do not always act in our own best interest. The government is sets rules to help people who can’t or won’t help themselves.

In fairness, decisions of this nature rarely come at the municipal level. Provincial, state or federal legislatures would have to put this type of idea into action. Second, the mandate would apply to the first car registered to a person, but exemptions could exist for someone buying their second car or for a luxury sports car over a certain cost threshold. These are luxuries not necessities and can be avoided in bad weather.

Thus far, it has been shown that the free market does not contain enough incentive for buyers to purchase the more expensive four wheel drive option. Economic theory would tell you that insurance rates will reduce for people with winter tires or four-wheel drive, and therefore people will opt not buy two wheel drive vehicles. In reality, insurance is complex and the difference between insurance rates for those with and without winter tires in negligible, and not enough to influence or direct a change in action.

We are also inherently short sighted and worse, we suffer from both the recency bias and the superiority illusion. During a bad storm, one is likely to think that it is finally time to upgrade to a better winter vehicle. But by the time you get around to actually purchasing a new vehicle, you recall your more recent driving memories which are potentially under more normalized conditions, like fair weather.  That’s the recency bias taking hold. The latter point – the superiority illusion – basically dictates with staunch consistency that basically, we (at least in North America) all think we’re better than we are. Too many participation trophies, perhaps, but Giladi and Klar observed in one study that when asked to rate themselves against a group, every single individual rated his/her driving ability as above average. Of course, it’s statistically impossible for everyone to be above average. (Why this occurs is worthy of another article)

This better-than-average heuristic is made worse when coupled with the Dunning-Kruger effect. This cognitive bias leads people with low ability in a task to overestimate their ability. Not only do we all think we’re above average, but the worst among us at any given task tend to overestimate our abilities by a larger factor. The importance and relevance by now should seem obvious, but if we all believe that we are better drivers than we really are, and if there isn’t a market based incentive to buy a safer, four wheel drive vehicle, then few people will spring for this option. More jarringly, the Dunning-Kruger effect has shown that those who should drive a safer car the most, are the ones least likely to realize it. Essentially, every Karen thinks the other Karen is the risk. So we are unlikely to help ourselves in this equation.

The higher the proportion of four wheel drive vehicles and equipped with winter tires during winter driving season, the lower the rate of accidents and death. Considering accidents are the number 3 leading cause of death in both Canada and the US, it would benefit us all to make this a mandated policy.